The End of an Era, er... Filament

As of January 1 of this year, making or importing incandescent lightbulbs is about as legal as drumming up moonshine during Prohibition. But is it being disregarded as much as the 1920‘s anti-hooch laws were too? And is there a little game of government-sponsored supply and demand going on here as well?

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which already eliminated the use of 100-watt and 75-watt incandescents in 2012 and 2013 respectively, has reached it’s final phase, targeting the 40- and 60-watt bulbs as last to go. These “general service” bulbs, which have been the most widely used over the past decades, have been shown to be atrociously inefficient, with some studies finding that they waste 95% of their power, converting a mere 5% of the energy they consume into actual light!

That said, for a vast majority of Americans and small businesses, their less-than-a-dollar price point was far easier to swallow than the costs of CFLs and potentially double-digit prices of LED counterparts. What’s more, while there are penalties for importing the bulbs, there’s little muscle to enforce such measures and no consequence for their use. In fact, a recent survey found that 60% of Americans are completely oblivious to the ban. Consequently, we may soon see something of an underground market in respect to something as seemingly silly as lightbulbs.

In addition, what is especially interesting is this data from the National Electrical Manufacturers Association that disseminates shipments of lighting in Q1 and Q2 of last year. This data, the most recent available, shows the incandescents made up roughly 65% of all orders - a number that has decreased by less than 50 points since the EISA was first introduced. In other words, while there have been increasing mandates for LED and and CFL lighting, the percentage of supply has been growing lethargically.

But what does this mean for your 2014 LEED and green building projects? Well, it might mean that pursuing lighting-related LEED credits could actually get more expensive. Currently, the average LED lightbulb costs $25. However, with a demand that is set to increase dramatically (Home Depot expects to run out of their entire incandescent supply within six months) unbalanced by a supply that is only moderately increasing, we could potentially see costs rise - even despite new manufacturers and further developments in manufacturing efficiencies.

While the long-term savings associated with LEDs are inarguably worth the investment either way, my suggestion is this: if nothing else, it’s wise to calculate future LEED project budgets on current prices - not on the widely accepted assumption that the high price of LEDs will level off over the next 6-18 months.